02/09/2026
MEDIA RELEASE
SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENT ON THE 2026/27 EL NIΓO
1 September 2026
A strong El NiΓ±o event has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to become a very strong event this spring. In fact, the latest weekly-averaged sea surface temperate anomalies over the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean are already exceeding the threshold that defines a very strong El NiΓ±o. The latest predictions are indicative that the El NiΓ±o will likely intensify further to become the strongest event in living memory. A strong El NiΓ±o refers to an event where 3-monthly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies over the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean are exceeding 1,5Β°C with respect to climatology, while during a very strong El NiΓ±o, this part of the ocean is 2Β°C warmer than normal. The latest forecasts indicate that the current event will very likely exceed the 3Β°C threshold (Figure 1).
Most El NiΓ±o events bring conditions of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region. Two of the most impactful El NiΓ±o events for the southern African region are those of 1982/83 and 2015/16, which brought widespread drought. The very strong El NiΓ±o event of 1997/98, however, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africaβs summer rainfall region. It should therefore be noted that, although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every single El NiΓ±o event is associated with drought.
The latest seasonal forecast of the South African Weather Service for the October to December 2026 period indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa (Figure 2, left). This period is also very likely to be associated with above-normal temperatures (Figure 2, right). To put the maximum temperature forecast into perspective, the above-normal threshold for mean October to December maximum temperatures (based on the October to December seasons from 1981 to 2010) is shown in Figure 3. The October to December 2026 maximum temperature forecast (Figure 2, right) shows a high likelihood for the mean maximum temperatures to be higher than the temperatures indicated in Figure 3. The rainfall and temperature forecast for the November 2026 to January 2027 period is very similar to that of the October to December 2026 period, with the most likely outcome for drier and warmer conditions over most of the country.
It should be noted that the expected very strong El NiΓ±o of 2026/27, in combination with global warming, will likely result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded. The 2015/16 very strong El NiΓ±o event brought unprecedented heatwaves to the southern African region. In the 11 years that have since passed, the southern African region has also continued to warm. If the 2026/27 El NiΓ±o event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur. These heatwaves have the potential to be severe. However, as current forecasts indicate the potential for an exceptionally strong El NiΓ±o, uncertainty remains regarding its eventual strength and regional impacts. For this reason, the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity associated with the event will be closely monitored and communicated among Disaster Management structures, weather sensitive industries, the media and the public.
The public and weather sensitive industries are strongly advised to follow the monthly seasonal forecast updates and daily short-term weather forecasts to be prepared for heatwave conditions or other high impact weather events.
For technical and further enquiries:
Cobus Olivier: Email: [email protected]
Kelebogile Mathole: Email: [email protected]
Steven Phakula: Email: [email protected]
Christien Engelbrecht: Email: [email protected]
