07/02/2025
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S.
Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal
boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression
could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while
the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly
across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has an axis along 23W in the eastern Atlantic,
from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 30W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of
14N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 05N to 10N and between 33W and 43W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 16N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
A tropical wave that had been in the western Carribbean is now
crossing Central America into the eastern Pacific Ocean along 86W.
It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is now
confined to Central America and the eastern Pacific.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N28W and to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N40W to 05N47W and then from 04N49W to French Guiana.
Convection along the monsoon trough is primarily associated with
the eastern Atlantic tropical waves, described in the Tropical
Waves section above.
..GULF OF AMERICA...
Convection previously over waters near the coast of NE Mexico has
now moved inland. The only remaining convection in the basin is
some scattered thunderstorms that have moved offshore the coasts
of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. High pressure of 1018 mb
centered in the east-central basin is dominating marine weather
this morning, leading to moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds
and seas of 4 ft or less.
For the forecast, a weak cold front will sag into the northern
Gulf Thu, then stall. An area of low pressure could develop over
the NE Gulf of Mexico, or possibly Florida or adjacent portions of
the Atlantic, along this boundary this weekend. Environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for some slow development of
this low, and a tropical or subtropical depression may form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves little.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are
possible over Florida and adjacent waters. There is a medium
chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days.
..CARIBBEAN SEA...
A subtropical ridge with an axis near 30N extends into the
Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in the deep tropics results in strong to near
gale- force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.
These winds are supporting rough seas in these waters, peaking
around 13 ft (4 m). The strongest winds and seas are found off
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate
seas are noted in the north-central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are prevalent elsewhere.offnt
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will
support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the
central basin through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish over the
weekend.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough axis is located just offshore the coast of
Florida, supporting scattered moderate convection N of 24N and W
of 74W. Another upper level trough centered roughly around 20N50W
is causing scattered moderate convection from 19N to 23N between
48W and 56W. Otherwise, the basin is generally dominated by
ridging, with both the Bermuda and Azores highs N of the area,
separated by a surface trough that extends into area waters from
32N48W to 27N56W. This ridging is leading to winds N of 24N that
are moderate or weaker to the W of 30W, with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Farther E, to the east of the main influence of the Azores high,
fresh to locally strong NE winds are generating seas of 8 to 10
ft, highest around the Canary Islands. Across the Tropical
Atlantic, S of 24N, moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds S of 24N, locally
strong offshore Hispaniola, will diminish into Thu as the pressure
gradient relaxes due to the Bermuda high to the north shifting to
the east. This will allow a weak cold front to move off the SE
U.S coast Thu night, then stall over the far NW basin Fri into the
weekend. An area of low pressure could develop along this
boundary offshore the SE U.S, or over FL or adjacent waters of the
Gulf. Conditions are marginally conducive for development and a
tropical or subtropical depression may form in the region this
weekend or early next week while the system moves little.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and thunderstorms are
possible over Florida and nearby waters. There is a medium chance
of tropical formation through the next 7 days.
