10/29/2026
With turnout trending upward from 2022, Republicans have increased their share of the vote EVERY day since ballot returns started being counted. Below is an in-the-weeds descrption of what is currently happening with ballots statewide.
Ballot returns (match backs) in WA state, through early voting, are less than ideal for Republicans, with the usual chorus of paid voices already declaring defeat and blame-shifting onto President Trump and the Republican Party. This perception is premature. While it’s true that the baseline number of Republicans who have voted so far is low, there is reason for optimism. Democrats are frontloading their votes, so things appear worse than they are.
In the 2026 WA State August Primary, Washington State Republican Party voter modeling data matched the actual results closely and suggested that 40.6% of ballots cast in that election went for Republicans while 59.4% went for Democrats. While this was unfavorable, turnout was only 36.8% and the remaining voters who did not vote in the primary skewed heavily Republican, suggesting things should improve for the general. Additionally, Republicans kept the margin manageable to come back and win in most of the key swing races throughout the state, including some potential pickups.
Currently, with roughly one week of voting left, the same Washington State Republican Party voter model suggests that roughly 39.8% of the ballot cast should go Republican versus 60.2% for Democrats, while statewide turnout sits around 27%. Some 72.5% of these votes already cast for the general are from voters who’ve already voted in the primary though, and in Federal election years, upwards of 95% of the people who vote in the primary also vote in the general and vote the same way as they did in the primary. Since we know the vast majority of primary voters are going to vote again and split similarly to how they did in the primary, the more intriguing question is where are we with the new voters who did not vote in the primary but have already cast their vote for the general?
The answer is that we are doing significantly better with these voters—about 7 to 8 points better than voters who already voted in the primary. At current trajectory, WA should expect a 67% turnout for the election, nearly doubling that of the primary election. If all the primary voters vote and we continue to improve by 7 to 8 points with new voters, we can expect Republicans to win most of the tossup races in our state.
WE can't bank on anything though unless we get out and actually vote! Get out and vote. Get your friends to vote. And get your neighbors to vote. And whatever you do, don't give up and don't give in. The left knows they can't win unless they can discourage us into not voting, and that's exactly what they are trying to do with the prevailing narrative—nationally and at the state level. Let’s prove them wrong.