25/08/2026
Weekly Regional Weather Outlook
Tuesday, August 25, 2026,
Valid at 2:00 PM ChST
A busy, wet season pattern persists across the western North Pacific this week with Tropical Depression Atsani (19W) in its waning stages, well northwest of the Marianas; and Typhoon Saudel (17W) quickly closing in on Okinawa and its neighboring islands tonight. A new tropical disturbance, Invest 99W, is taking shape between Pohnpei and Wake Island.
An active monsoon pattern persists across the region along, and south of 10N. This area includes all of the FSM, and the northern Marshall Islands. Areas of showers, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall spread across the FSM, with heavy showers and thunderstorms ongoing today across Yap and over islands to the east. Heavy showers could result in additional mudslides and localized flooding, especially for the high islands which received heavy showers in recent days. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Yap State.
Palau and Kapingamarangi will remain the regional outliers this week, staying drier than most other islands across the region.
TC POTENTIAL/HAZARDS:
NWS Guam continues to issue 6-hourly Public Advisories on the weakening Tropical Depression Atsani (19W) as it moves north at 10 mph. Currently located well northwest of Guam, it was centered near 19.7N 137.9E (1:00 pm ChST position) with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It will soon begin a turn toward the northwest and soon meet its demise.
Typhoon Saudel (17W) sits east of Okinawa and will pass near, or just north of the island tonight as a category-2 typhoon. Saudel has exited the NWS Guam Area of Responsibility, passing north of 25N.
Elsewhere across the region, we are tracking a tropical disturbance, now labeled as Invest 99W, centered well northeast of Pohnpei near 13N163E. Currently rated as “sub low” for development by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, 99W is not expected to develop in the coming days. 99W will be something to watch later this week, but current trajectories indicate no threat to the FSM or the Marianas as it eventually heads generally north.
Additional tropical disturbances are to be expected across the region as tropical conditions remain active across the western North Pacific. Remember: Tropical disturbances are not guaranteed to develop into tropical cyclones, as some do dissipate.
DROUGHT OUTLOOK:
Recent rainfall patterns have been sufficient to meet weekly water needs across most islands and atolls, particularly related to the development of Typhoon Saudel in its early stages in the FSM last week. Heavy showers resulted in several small landslides in Chuuk and Kosrae, with at least one home damaged in Kosrae. Additionally, more than 22 inches of rain fell across Yap in the last week, with heavy showers and thunderstorms ongoing across the state this morning.
Last week’s assessment by the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions at Yap, Palau and Jaluit, with improvements likely at Yap and Jaluit this week. Drier conditions continue across Palau and will generally continue in the coming week, extending northeastward into Yap later this week.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
As conditions can change rapidly, please stay up to date with regional weather forecasts and conditions at all times. Visit NWS Guam online at www.weather.gov/gum for all the latest regional forecasts and conditions.
