08/31/2026
Incident Information - Texas A&M Forest Service
The Texas Fire Potential Update is posted at: https://bit.ly/TexasFirePotentialUpdate
Through the outlook, potential impacts from a tropical system in the Gulf will create a complex fire environment. Portions of southeastern Texas could observe improve fuel dryness and limited fire danger, while regions west and north of the projected path have low probability of developing widespread elevated to critical fire weather. Increased winds are likely along and north of I-20 in Northeast Texas, North Texas, and Cross Timbers and could result in increased fire potential in dry to critically dry surface fuel, though increased clouds and increased surface moisture may promote low potential for a large fire with high resistance to control. This could change as forecast guidance becomes clearer.
The fire environment for the High Plains, Rolling Plains, Eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, South Texas, and Lower Gulf Coast will continue to support moderate potential where rainfall deficits and dry to critically dry surface fuels are present and forecast to persist. The Western Hill Country will continue to support low initial attack potential as underlying dryness persists. Increased afternoon wind speeds that will linger in the evening could cause moderate resistance to control in high-risk juniper fuels.
The fire environment will gradually improve for Western Pineywoods, Southeast Texas, Upper Gulf Coast, and portions of Central Texas as a tropical system in the gulf will increase precipitation chances, moisten surface fuels, and the lack of elevated fire weather will limit volume of initial attack potential.
On Friday, the Sub-Tropical Ridge reamplifies aloft, and limits precipitation chances. Hot dry conditions return dry surface fuels and regions that don’t receive precipitation from the tropical system could experience a return to moderate to high volume initial attack potential.